Why blended LTV misleads Thai subscription apps
One number that mixes annual plans, promo months, and TrueMoney users will flatter whoever bought media last Tuesday.
Journal
Notes we wish had existed before the board meeting.
Short essays from the studio. They assume you already ship an app and already suspect your lifetime value tile is lying a little.
A payback window is not lifetime value
Cash returned on day 40 can still hide a cohort that never covers creative refresh or support load.
Reading retention after you raised the price
Old cohorts keep paying the old plan. Pretending otherwise is how boards get surprised in month three.
When day-one LTV tells you to buy the wrong users
High first-day revenue is often incentive, family-plan sharing, or a refund waiting to happen.